Cabral Gold Inc.

The thesis

Metrics profile

This profile describes the company's characteristics. It contains no assessment of whether the share is over- or undervalued.

Fundamentals

Business model

One project, one country, one subsidiary. Cuiú Cuiú in the Tapajós gold province (Pará, Brazil) is, according to the annual financial report, the only material property; it is held through the Brazilian subsidiary Magellan Minerais. The ground in the Poconé region of Mato Grosso has seen no exploration activity since 2012.

The strategy has two stages: a small, readily financeable heap leach on the oxide material is meant to generate the cash flow with which the substantially larger hard-rock deposit is then developed. Whether the second stage arrives depends on the first.

Balance sheet

As at 31 March 2026: cash of CAD 31,890,924 against CAD 8,054,491 at 30 September 2025, net working capital of CAD 17,168,388, and a half-year loss of CAD 23,774,460. The increase in cash did not come from operations but from financing: CAD 64.96 million net, of which CAD 63.6 million from the gold loan.

⚠️ On the financial year: the company moved its year-end from 31 December to 30 September, with a nine-month transition period ending 30 September 2025. “Q2 2026” therefore denotes the six months to 31 March 2026 — not the first half of the calendar year. Anyone comparing these figures with those of other companies is otherwise comparing different periods.

The six-month cash outflow: CAD 10,545,899 from operating activities and CAD 29,599,288 from investing activities, CAD 40,145,187 in total. Investing includes CAD 16.6 million of construction, CAD 5.3 million of prepayments to suppliers and CAD 6.88 million for the purchase of 1,150 ounces of physical gold.

Dilution

The share count rose from 280,512,091 (31 March 2026) to 305,415,616 at the reporting date of 29 May 2026 and to 310,845,616 in early July 2026. On a fully diluted basis the corporate presentation gives 363,310,158 shares — around 17% above the outstanding count.

Outstanding are 35,567,949 warrants at an average of CAD 0.57 and 20,345,000 options at an average of CAD 0.45. The largest single item is 10,000,000 warrants at CAD 0.71 running to 26 November 2027, issued in connection with the gold loan.

The terms themselves are worth watching: the December 2024 placement was priced at CAD 0.24 with a half warrant, the May 2025 placement at CAD 0.38 with a half warrant — the raise of 2 April 2026, by contrast, at CAD 0.95 **with no warrant**. A bought deal without a warrant is a different financing environment from a unit placement with one. What that says about what follows is not stated here: it is an observation about the past.

Valuation

We currently publish no fair value and no recommendation. The framework that applies to this sector is set out here: Methodology.

Key metrics

Peer group

SWOT

Chart

Catalysts

• Q3 2026 Wet circuit commissioning

  Announced on 9 July 2026; the ADR plant was expected on site by the end of July 2026. We have no confirmation that it arrived.

• Q4 2026 First gold pour and commercial production

  A company target stated on 9 July 2026, not a commitment. The first verifiable data point of the entire undertaking.

• open LI — Licença de Instalação for the full mining licence

  The application was to be filed shortly after the LP was granted, according to the annual financial report. No grant date is given. Until then operations run under trial-mining licences.

• 31 Mar 2027 First repayment on the gold loan

  39 kg of gold per quarter. The date is fixed, whether or not production has begun by then.

• 2027 PEA on the second phase

  Announced for 2027 with no fixed date. Only then will the hard-rock portion receive an economic valuation for the first time.

Risks

• Going-concern statement. The half-year report to 31 March 2026 states that a material uncertainty exists which may cast significant doubt on the company's ability to continue as a going concern. That is the company's own disclosure, not an assessment of ours.
• The repayment date falls before production is secured. The first instalment of 39 kg of gold is due on 31 March 2027; first gold pour is announced for the fourth quarter of 2026 — announced, not committed. One quarter separates the two. The loan is secured by a first-ranking charge over the company and its subsidiaries.
• Permitting for the full mining licence is not complete. The LP was granted in March 2026, the LI is outstanding, and the environmental permits are under review according to the annual financial report. Current operations rely on trial-mining licences.
• One project, one country, one subsidiary. Cuiú Cuiú is the only material property; all operating assets sit in Pará through Magellan Minerais. There is no second site to absorb a failure.
• Litigation has reached the enforcement stage. A judgment has been handed down against the defendants arising from agreements of 2009–2011 over properties at Poconé — not Cuiú Cuiú — and the claimant has begun enforcement. Around BRL 5,900,000 was awarded. On the company's own account Cabral bears 50% of the damages of ECI and Brasil Central, limited to the assets available there, and was not sued directly. No provision has been recognised; management states that it cannot estimate either the likelihood or the amount.
• The resource estimate is a composite of three effective dates. Oxide Central and Machichie at 23 July 2025, Oxide MG at 9 October 2024, and all primary material at 31 July 2022. Anyone who reads the total as one figure from one date is reading it wrongly.
• The PFS covers only a slice. What is valued is solely the oxide starter operation, with 128,903 ounces of reserves — against a total resource of 670,480 ounces Indicated and 527,320 ounces Inferred. The study's NPV and IRR do not refer to the project as a whole.

Elsewhere in the network

• Aktienatlas — full company profile
• BörsenPost — news