Fireweed Metals Corp.

The thesis

Metrics profile

This profile describes the company's characteristics. It contains no assessment of whether the share is over- or undervalued.

Fundamentals

Business model

Two projects in the Yukon, both at exploration stage, both without a mining licence.

**Macpass** comprises the Tom, Jason, End Zone and Boundary Zone deposits. The resource estimate is a composite of two effective dates: zinc-lead-silver at 4 September 2024 — with a database closed on 23 June 2024 that **contains no 2024 drilling** — and germanium/gallium at 17 October 2024.

⚠️ **Fireweed assigns germanium and gallium a value of zero.** The reasoning in the interim report is explicit: no precedent is known for germanium or gallium being paid for in zinc concentrates. Anyone capitalising those by-products in a valuation is going beyond what the company itself assumes.

**Mactung** is a tungsten deposit with 41.5 million tonnes indicated at 0.73% tungsten trioxide and 12.2 million tonnes inferred at 0.59%, effective 28 July 2023. A feasibility study was commenced on 9 March 2026, with completion expected in early 2027 and mining licence applications announced for 2027. A historical feasibility study from the previous owner exists from 2009 — it is **not current** and we quote no figures from it.

Mactung carries a 4% net smelter return royalty, 2% of which is buyable back for CAD 2.5 million, plus **CAD 10 million owed to the Government of the Northwest Territories**, payable on announcing an intention to mine. The Jason claims carry a further 3%, buyable back for CAD 5.25 million.

Balance sheet

As at 31 March 2026 — the last interim report published; as at 3 September 2026 no figures to 30 June 2026 were available: cash of CAD 17,628,356 against CAD 25,708,243 at 31 December 2025. Working capital of CAD 18,752,639 and current liabilities of CAD 5,646,713.

Cash used in operating activities in the first quarter was **CAD 9,253,541**, against CAD 5,523,492 in the prior-year quarter. Fireweed **does not capitalise exploration** but expenses it: CAD 5,461,502 in the quarter. The quarterly loss was CAD 7,061,906.

🔴 **The going-concern statement is in the interim report itself**, in the liquidity section: that a material uncertainty exists which may cast significant doubt on the company's ability to continue as a going concern, and that the company is dependent on obtaining regular financings in order to continue. That is the company's own disclosure, not an assessment of ours.

After the reporting date, on 2 April 2026, around CAD 61,463,305 gross was raised. That changes the liquidity position materially — but the statement quoted comes from the report of 26 May 2026, that is **after** the raise.

Dilution

At the reporting date of 26 May 2026: 226,957,799 shares, 13,854,608 options and **no warrants** — around 240,812,407 fully diluted, about 6.1% above the outstanding count.

Issuance over the last eleven months does add up, however: around 24.6 million shares in 2025 and 14,704,140 in April 2026, together roughly **17% of the present capital**.

The placements in detail: on 28 May 2025, CAD 46,002,720 gross, comprising 12,545,000 critical mineral flow-through shares at CAD 2.79 and 4,281,000 at CAD 2.57, plus a first non-brokered tranche of 4,653,337 shares at CAD 1.80; on 25 June 2025 the balance of CAD 5,624,033 at CAD 1.80 to Lundin family trusts; and on 2 April 2026 a non-brokered 14,704,140 shares at **CAD 4.18**, a 9% premium to the close of 27 March 2026.

Flow-through shares are placed at a tax-driven premium but dilute exactly like any other. The Lundin family trusts hold around **22.9%** and are designated a control person; **JX Advanced Metals** came in at around **5%** in April 2026.

Valuation

We currently publish no fair value and no recommendation. The framework that applies to this sector is set out here: Methodology.

Key metrics

Peer group

SWOT

Chart

Catalysts

• early 2027 Mactung feasibility study

  Commenced 9 March 2026. It would be the company's first current economic study of any kind, and the first occasion for a reserve estimate.

• 2027 Mining licence applications for Mactung

  Announced by the company for 2027, following the study. No date given.

• open Ross River Dena Council consent

  Fireweed has undertaken to develop the projects only with free, prior and informed consent. In practice that describes a de facto veto.

• open Disbursement of the public commitments

  Up to USD 15.8 million from the United States and CAD 12.9 million from Canada. ⚠️ The interim report warns expressly that there is no assurance the funds will be received as agreed.

• open Updated Macpass resource estimate

  The current one excludes drilling from 2024 onwards: the database was closed on 23 June 2024.

Risks

• The interim report to 31 March 2026 carries an express going-concern statement: that a material uncertainty exists which may cast significant doubt on the company's ability to continue as a going concern, and that the company is dependent on obtaining regular financings. That is the company's own disclosure. It appears in the report of 26 May 2026, that is after the CAD 61.5 million raise of 2 April 2026.
• There are no reserves and no current economic study. The technical report of 17 October 2024 states, for reserves, costs and economic analysis alike, that the section is not applicable. The entire valuation rests on resources, and 46% of Macpass tonnage is **inferred** — the category with the lowest geological confidence.
• The 2018 preliminary economic assessment is superseded and must not be read as the economics of today. It is effective 23 May 2018, assumes USD 1.21 per pound of zinc, bases around 78% of its mine plan on inferred resources — which it itself describes as too speculative geologically — and the underlying resource estimate was replaced in 2024. ⚠️ We have found **no formal statement by the company that it no longer applies**, and therefore assert neither that it does nor that it does not.
• Land title is unresolved. Both projects lie in the Ross River Area, under a moratorium on new mining claims since 2013 while Kaska land claims remain unsettled. Neither the Ross River Dena Council nor the Liard First Nation has signed a final agreement. On 10 February 2026 Fireweed undertook to develop the projects only with the Council's free, prior and informed consent — a mitigant that simultaneously describes a de facto veto.
• Dilution is continuous and accelerating. Around 39.3 million shares were issued over eleven months, roughly 17% of the present capital. Part of that is flow-through shares, placed at a tax-driven premium — but diluting exactly the same.
• The projects carry substantial royalties: a 4% net smelter return on Mactung, 2% of it buyable back for CAD 2.5 million; CAD 10 million owed to the Government of the Northwest Territories in two tranches on announcing an intention to mine; and 3% on the Jason claims, buyable back for CAD 5.25 million.
• Germanium and gallium are valued at zero by the company because no precedent is known for their being paid for in zinc concentrates. The reported 614,800 kg of germanium and 412,900 kg of gallium in the indicated category are therefore expressly **not** part of the value the company itself assumes.
• Funding depends in part on public commitments — up to USD 15.8 million from the U.S. Department of War and up to CAD 12.9 million from NRCan — and the interim report warns expressly that there is no assurance those funds will be received as agreed. ⚠️ On litigation we have found **neither confirmation nor denial**.

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